Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.015399 0.017463 0.019707 0.022330 0.025313 0.028601 0.032503
2025-04-13 0.011583 0.014275 0.017459 0.021506 0.026522 0.032545 0.040345
2025-04-20 0.010100 0.013173 0.017021 0.022203 0.029019 0.037702 0.049645
2025-04-27 0.009011 0.012309 0.016637 0.022748 0.031185 0.042471 0.058789
2025-05-04 0.008228 0.011699 0.016441 0.023419 0.033471 0.047499 0.068690
2025-05-11 0.007336 0.010806 0.015721 0.023221 0.034441 0.050703 0.076246
2025-05-18 0.006662 0.010135 0.015218 0.023239 0.035658 0.054295 0.084638
2025-05-25 0.006003 0.009408 0.014542 0.022896 0.036251 0.056943 0.091770
2025-06-01 0.005599 0.009022 0.014334 0.023232 0.037891 0.061304 0.101978
2025-06-08 0.005138 0.008498 0.013850 0.023062 0.038673 0.064326 0.110229
2025-06-15 0.004898 0.008307 0.013877 0.023719 0.040858 0.069809 0.123123
2025-06-22 0.004421 0.007672 0.013111 0.022954 0.040532 0.070989 0.128584
2025-06-29 0.004063 0.007217 0.012620 0.022641 0.040998 0.073637 0.137052
2025-07-06 0.003656 0.006640 0.011869 0.021796 0.040432 0.074400 0.142132
2025-07-13 0.003526 0.006549 0.011969 0.022504 0.042774 0.080656 0.158206
2025-07-20 0.003384 0.006422 0.011988 0.023056 0.044861 0.086606 0.174256
2025-07-27 0.003270 0.006336 0.012074 0.023736 0.047249 0.093332 0.192512
2025-08-03 0.003055 0.006036 0.011727 0.023536 0.047865 0.096611 0.203995
2025-08-10 0.002885 0.005809 0.011501 0.023554 0.048916 0.100845 0.217883
2025-08-17 0.002689 0.005513 0.011115 0.023207 0.049173 0.103453 0.228502
2025-08-24 0.002581 0.005389 0.011062 0.023547 0.050910 0.109313 0.246862
2025-08-31 0.002430 0.005162 0.010780 0.023375 0.051519 0.112795 0.260182
2025-09-07 0.002368 0.005120 0.010881 0.024041 0.054033 0.120665 0.284412